The Origin of Consensus
But if dissensus, or lack of agreement, increases creativity and innovation, and is best for the pursuit of scientific truths, what elements fuel the drive to consensus? Not the scientific method, clearly, because it is indifferent to the results of science. Rescher suggested that what leads scientists to consensus is the “conformism imposed by promotion committees, funding agency appraisers, and peer review boards.” Science is expensive and, consequently, scientists compete for funding. When funding agencies are biased towards one particular view, these agencies will fund research that corroborates that view. As a result, that view will spread – not because it is closer to the truth, or because it describes reality better than the alternatives, but because it is the only view that is funded.
But the consensus that seems to emerge is only illusory. Janis suggested several pressures that create this illusion. The following are particularly important:
(1) Self-censorship of deviations from the apparent group consensus, reflecting each member’s inclination to minimize to himself the importance of his doubts and counterarguments. (2) A shared illusion of unanimity concerning judgments conforming to the majority view (partly resulting from self-censorship of deviations, augmented by the false assumption that silence means consent). (3) Direct pressure on any member who expresses strong arguments against any of the group’s stereotypes, illusions, or commitments, making clear that this type of dissent is contrary to what is expected of all loyal members. (4) The emergence of self-appointed mindguards—members who protect the group from adverse information that might shatter their shared complacency about the effectiveness and morality of their decisions.
Another reason for the spread of a particular view is that the media only relate certain types of things, such as environmental disasters and political scandals. Julian Simon argued, in The Ultimate Resource 2, that such distorted reporting is what might lead to a consensus:
Newspapers and television – the main source of notions about matters which people do not experience directly – are systematically misleading the public, even if unintentionally… the media carry stories about environmental scares, people become frightened, polls then reveal their worry, and the worry is then cited as support for policies to initiate action about the supposed scares, which then raise the level of public concern.
Consensus & Politics
